Earthquake Statistical Analysis through Multi-state Modeling [Hardcover]

Earthquake occurrence modeling is a rapidly developing research area. This book deals with its critical issues, ranging from theoretical advances to practical applications.

The introductory chapter outlines state-of-the-art earthquake modeling approaches based on stochastic models. Chapter 2 presents seismogenesis in association with the evolving stress field. Chapters 3 to 5 present earthquake occurrence modeling by means of hidden (semi-)Markov models and discuss associated characteristic measures and relative estimation aspects. Further comparisons, the most important results and our concluding remarks are provided in Chapters 6 and 7.

List of Abbreviations ix

List of Symbols xi

Preface xv

Introduction xix

Chapter 1. Fundamentals on Stress Changes 1

1.1. Introduction 1

1.2. Stress interaction 4

1.3. Stress changes calculation 12

1.4. Modeling of Coulomb stress changes for different faulting types 15

1.4.1.?CS for strike-slip faulting 15

1.4.2.?CS for dip-slip faulting 16

1.5. Seismicity triggered by stress transfer 21

1.5.1. Triggering of strong earthquakes 21

1.5.2. Aftershock triggering 23

1.5.3. Triggering of mining seismicity 28

1.6. Discussion on stress interaction 31

Chapter 2. Hidden Markov Models 35

2.1. Introduction 35

2.2. Hidden Markov framework 37

2.3. Seismotectonic regime and seismicity data 42

2.4. Application to earthquake occurrences 44

2.4.1. Two hidden states and three observation types 45

2.4.2. Three hidden states and three observation types 48lC/