Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World [Paperback]

A “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman,New York Timesbestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author ofThe Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.

At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But inEverything Is Predictable,Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

“Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author ofThe Undercover Economist),Everything Is Predictableis an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.Tom Chivers is an author and the award-winning science writer forSemafor. His writing has appeared inThe Times(London),The Guardian,New Scientist,Wired, CNN, and more. His books includeEverything Is Predictable, The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy, and How to Read Numbers.