Forecasting Forest Futures: A Hybrid Modelling Approach to the Assessment of Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems and their Values [Hardcover]

Modelling is an important tool for understanding the complexity of forest ecosystems and the variety of interactions of ecosystem components, processes and values. This book describes the hybrid approach to modelling forest ecosystems and their possible response to natural and management-induced disturbance. The book describes the FORECAST family of ecosystem management models at three different spatial scales (tree, stand and landscape), and compares them with alternative models at these three spatial scales.

The book will help forest managers to understand what to expect from ecosystem-based forest models; serve as a tool for use in teaching about sustainability, scenario analysis and value trade-offs in natural resources management; and assist policy makers, managers and researches working in assessment of sustainable forest management and ecosystem management. Several real-life examples of using the FORECAST family of models in forest management and other applications are presented from countries including Canada, China, Spain and the USA, to illustrate the concepts described in the text. The book also demonstrates how these models can be extended for scenario and value trade-off analysis through visualization and educational or management games.

PREFACE1. INTRODUCTION: WHY DO WE NEED ECOSYSTEM-LEVEL MODELS AS A DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL IN FORESTRY?2. ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCEPTS THAT SHOULD BE ADDRESSED IN FORESTRY DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS3. HYBRID SIMULATION (HS) IN THE CONTEXT OF OTHER CLASSES OF FOREST MODELS, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST FAMILY OF HS MODELS4. FORESTRY IN TRANSITION: THE NEED FOR INDIVIDUAL TREE MODELS5. STAND-LEVEL MODELS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT AS TOOLS TO SUPPORT ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT6. LANDSCAPE-LEVEL MODELS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT7. EDUCATIONAL MODELS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT8. HOW TO DEVELOP A MODEL FOR FOREST MANAGEMENT9. THE ROLE OF ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT MODELS IN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT, CERTIFlÓ&