Hollywood Economics How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry [Hardcover]

Just how risky is the movie industry? Is screenwriter William Goldman's claim that nobody knows anything really true? Can a star and a big opening change a movie's risks and return? Do studio executives really earn their huge paychecks?

These and many other questions are answered in Hollywood Economics. The book uses powerful analytical models to uncover the wild uncertainty that shapes the industry. The centerpiece of the analysis is the unpredictable and often chaotic dynamic behaviour of motion picture audiences.

This unique and important book will be of interest to students and researchers involved in the economics of movies, industrial economics and business studies. The book will also be a real eye-opener for film writers, movie executives, finance and risk management professionals as well as more general movie fans.

Part I: Box-office champions, chaotic dynamics and herding  1. The market for motion pictures: Rank, revenue and survival  2. Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry  3. Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue  Part II: Wild uncertainty, tough decisions and false beliefs  4. Uncertainty in the movie industry: Can star power reduce the terror of the box office?  5. Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies?: Risk, stochastic dominance and the illusion of expectation  6. Big budgets, big openings and legs: Analysis of the blockbuster strategy  Part III: Judges, lawyers and the movies  7. Motion picture antitrust: The Paramount cases revisited  8. Was the antitrust action that broke up the movie studios good for the movies?: Evidence from the stock market  9. Stochastic market structure: Concentration measures and mol3±