Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro-economy [Hardcover]

To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.

This book offers new quantitative insights into how South African economy reacts to external economic shocks. The analysis includes focusing on economic growth and financial spill over, effects of capital inflows, contrasting the stock market price returns and volatility on economic growth and determining the effects of financial stress.

Contents
Introduction
1.1 Risk Aversion Strains, Asset Price And Spreads
1.2 Assessing Co-Movements In Asset Prices
1.3 G7 Growth Versus South African Economic Growth
1.4 Correlation Between South African Trade Variables And G7 Economic Growth
1.5 South Africa's Export Shares Versus Global Economic Growth
PART I: GROWTH SPILL-OVER EFFECTS
2. G8 Economic Growth Spill-Over Into South Africa25
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Recent Growth Spill-Overs Evidencl#t