Childbearing Trends and Prospects in Low-Fertility Countries: A Cohort Analysis [Paperback]

Low fertility, one of the critical issues in the contemporary world, will persist in the foreseeable future. That is arguably the principal conclusion of this book. Fundamental changes in social security and health care systems, taxation schemes, and migration policies, for instance, are inevitable, unless societies are able to institute effective measures and create favorable conditions for increasing fertility. Such are the unavoidable challenges facing European and other economically advanced countries.

The present study applies the cohort analysis approach to detailed data covering over half of the 20th century for populations of 35 countries. In distinction to most previous studies, that approach is put to use not only for elucidating past trends, but also to capture salient aspects of contemporary fertility patterns. And, beyond that, it is utilized to suggest possible near-term future trends in fertility behavior.

From the reviews of the first edition:

This is a tour de force in cohort fertility analysis, a deep and powerful piece of work. It is a striking demonstration of the force of really detailed empirical analysis of excellent and comprehensive data, with the data looked at from every angle and judiciously extrapolated into the future. It represents a major contribution to our understanding of contemporary low fertility in Europe and other developed nations - arguably one of the most important demographic phenomena of our times, and one whose scope and implications are not yet fully appreciated. No one could fail to appreciate these after a careful look at this study.
Thomas K. Burch, University of Victoria, BC, Canada<l'