Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan [Paperback]

Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the worlds two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war  in which the nuclear question would be ever-present  can currently be described as possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic.

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In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a USChina conflict as inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable.

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Acknowledgements

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Map 1: Taiwan and its surrounding region

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Introduction: Danger, hiding in plain sight

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Chapter One: Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters

Why the stakes in Taiwan are so high

The conflict to be deterred

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Chapter Two: Deterrence lessons from Ukraine

Eight lessons from Ukraine

Specific implications for China

Specific implications for Taiwan