Judgment and Decision Making: Psychological Perspectives [Paperback]

Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. It examines assessments of probability, frequency, and causation; as well as how decisions are rendered under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Topics covered include dynamic, everyday, and group decision making; individual differences; and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making.

Offering up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience, this volume has everything a psychology student needs for BPS accreditation, whilst drawing out the practical applications for non-psychology students with plentiful examples from business, economics, sport, law, and medicine. The latest addition to the BPS Textbooks in Psychology series, this thorough text provides a succinct, reader-friendly account of the field of judgment and decision making.

Preface and Acknowledgements 1

1 Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality 2

2 The Nature and Analysis of Judgment 8

3 Judging Probability and Frequency 18

4 Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias 32

5 Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments 40

6 Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking 54

7 Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty 64

8 Preference and Choice 78

9 Confidence and Optimism 92

10 Judgment and Choice over Time 106

11 Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory 118

12 Risk 132

13 Decision Making in Groups and Teams 146

14 Cooperation and Coordination 160

l³,