Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences [Paperback]

Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems.

The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.

Preface xi

Acknowledgements xvii

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Example Application 1

1.1.1 Description 1

1.1.2 3D Modeling 3

1.2 Modeling Uncertainty 4

Further Reading 8

2 Review on Statistical Analysis and Probability Theory 9

2.1 Introduction 9

2.2 Displaying Data with Graphs 10

2.2.1 Histograms 10

2.3 Describing Data with Numbers 13

2.3.1 Measuring the Center 13

2.3.2 Measuring the Spread 14

2.3.3 Standard Deviation and Variance 14

2.3.4 Properties of the Standard Deviation 15

2.3.5 Quantiles and the QQ Plot 15

2.4 Probability 16

2.4.1 Introduction 16

2.4.2 Sample Space, Event, Outcomes 17

2.4.3lSC