Empirical Modeling in Economics Specification and Evaluation [Hardcover]

Lucid account of the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model.Clive W. J. Granger is widely regarded as one of the greatest living social scientists. In this book, designed for scholars, researchers and senior undergraduates he considers the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Focusing on the deforestation in the Amazon region of Brazil as well as drawing on cases and vignettes from, economics, finance and politics, and also from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigour with intuition to provide a concise and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in economics.Clive W. J. Granger is widely regarded as one of the greatest living social scientists. In this book, designed for scholars, researchers and senior undergraduates he considers the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Focusing on the deforestation in the Amazon region of Brazil as well as drawing on cases and vignettes from, economics, finance and politics, and also from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigour with intuition to provide a concise and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in economics.In these three essays, Professor Granger explains the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Drawing on a wide range of cases and vignettes from economics, finance, politics and environment economics, as well as from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigor with intuition to provide a unique and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in modern economics. Chapter 1 deals with Specification. Chapter 2 considers Evaluation, and argues that insufficent evaluation is undertaken by economists, and that models should be evaluated in terms of the quality of their output. In Chapter 3, the question of how to evaluate forecasts is considered at several levlsª