Estimating and Choosing An Essay on Probability in Practice [Paperback]

Ever since the beginning of modern probability theory in the seventeenth century there has been a continuous debate over the meaning and applicability of the concept of probability. This book presents a coherent and well thoughtout framework for the use of probabilistic models to describe unique phenomena in a purely objective way. Although Estimating and Choosing was written with geostatistical applications in mind, the approach is of general applicability across the whole spectrum of probabilistic modelling. The only full-fledged treatment of the foundations of practical probability modelling ever written, this book fills an important gap in the literature of probability and statistics.Ever since the beginning of modern probability theory in the seventeenth century there has been a continuous debate over the meaning and applicability of the concept of probability. This book presents a coherent and well thoughtout framework for the use of probabilistic models to describe unique phenomena in a purely objective way. Although Estimating and Choosing was written with geostatistical applications in mind, the approach is of general applicability across the whole spectrum of probabilistic modelling. The only full-fledged treatment of the foundations of practical probability modelling ever written, this book fills an important gap in the literature of probability and statistics.I A Quest for Objectivity.- 0 Introduction.- 1 Monod and the Concept of Chance or How to Overstep the Limits of Objectivity.- Chance is a Metaphysical Concept.- The Parable of the Plumber and the Physician.- Polypeptide Chains.- An Apparent Paradox.- The Threshold of Realism or Objectivity.- 2 Why we do not Agree with the Etruscans or On the Objectivity of Probabilistic Models.- The Problem.- Some Anthropomorphic Illusions.- The Popperian Criterion of Objectivity.- Operational Concepts.- Subjectivity.- There is no Probabilitlc)