In Extremis Disruptive Events and Trends in Climate and Hydrology [Hardcover]

The book addresses a weakness of current methodologies used in extreme value assessment, i.e. the assumption of stationarity, which is not given in reality. With respect to this issue a lot of new developed technologies are presented, i.e. influence of trends vs. internal correlations, quantitative uncertainty assessments, etc. The book not only focuses on artificial time series data, but has a close link to empirical measurements, in order to make the suggested methodologies applicable for practitioners in water management and meteorology.Part I. General.- The Threat of Climate Extremes: The Need of New Assessment Methodologies.- Intense Precipitation and High Floods  Observations and Projections.- Wavelet Spectral and Cross Spectral Analysis.- Part II. Extremes and Trend Detection.- Trend Detection in River Floods.- Extreme Value Analysis Considering Trends.- Extreme Value and Trend Analysis based on Statistical Modelling of Precipitation Time Series.- Part III. Extremes and Correlations.- The statistics of Return Intervals, Maxima and Centennial Events under the Influence of Long-Term Correlations.- Detrended Fluctuation Studies of Long-Term Persistence and Multifractality of Precipitation and River Runoff Records.- Extraction of Long-term Structures from Southern German Runoff Data by Means of Linear and Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction.- Part IV. Assessing Uncertainty.- The Bootstrap in Climate Risk Analysis.- Flood Level Confidence Intervals.- A Review on the Pettitt-Test.- Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Records.- Part V. Spatial Issues.- Regional Determination of Historical Heavy Rain for Reconstruction of Extreme Flood Events.- Development of Regional Flood Frequency Relationships for Gauged and Ungauged Catchments Using L-Moments.- Spatial Correlations of River Runoffs in a CatchmentDr. J. Kropp: Senior scientist at PIK; he studied chemistry and physics and in 1992 he took a diploma in theoretical chemistry at the Univl3_