The History of Econometric Ideas [Paperback]

This book illustrates how economists first learnt to harness statistical methods to measure and test the 'laws' of economics.An advanced level of statistical knowledge is not required for this readable account of how economists learned to harness statistical methods to measure and test the laws of economics over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.An advanced level of statistical knowledge is not required for this readable account of how economists learned to harness statistical methods to measure and test the laws of economics over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.The History of Econometric Ideas covers the period from the late nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century, illustrating how economists first learned to harness statistical methods to measure and test the laws of economics. Though scholarly, Dr. Morgan's book is very accessible; it does not require a high level of prior statistical knowledge, and will be of interest to practicing statisticians and economists.List of figures; Preface; Acknowledgements; Introduction; Part I. Business Cycles: Introduction to business cycles; 1. Sunspot and Venus theories of the business cycle: 1.1. Jevons' sunspot theory; 1.2. Moore's Venus theory; 1.3. The decline of periodic cycle analysis; 2. Measuring and representing business cycles: 2.1. Juglar's credit cycle; 2.2. The statistical approach of W. C. Mitchell; 2.3. Persons and business barometers; 2.4. The business cycle research institutes; 2.5. Statistical economics and econometrics; Addendum: graphs and graphic methods; 3. Random shocks enter the business cycle scene: 3.1. The experiments of Yule and Slutsky; 3.2. Frisch's time-series analysis; 3.3. Frisch's rocking horse model of the business cycle; 4. Tinbergen and macrodynamic models: 4.1. The Dutch model; 4.2. The first League of Nations' report; 4.3. The second League of Nations' report; 4.4. the critical reaction to Tinbergen's work; Part II. Demand Analysis: Introduction to demandlã+