Subjective Probability The Real Thing [Paperback]

A concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view.This book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability is a mode of judgment. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and synthesis of a lifetime of wrestling with these problems and issues.This book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability is a mode of judgment. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and synthesis of a lifetime of wrestling with these problems and issues.This book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability theory is a mode of judgement. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and a synthesis of a lifetime of wrestling with such problems and issues.1. Probability primer; 2. Testing scientific theories; 3. Probability dynamics; collaboration; 4. Expectation primer; 5. Updating on statistics; 6. Choosing.'All of this is very lucidly presented and very easy and fun to read. There are a lot of extremely interesting examples and a lot of very instructive and entertaining exercises & I think it is a terrific introduction to the theme of subjective probability and the Bayesian approach to philosophy of science and epistemology that will be of interest to any professional or scientist as well.' Ellery Eells, University of Wisconsin-Madison'The book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability theory is a mode of judgement. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and a syntheses of a lifetime of wrestling with such problems and issues.'l£M