Before the Vote Forecasting American National Elections [Paperback]

Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.

Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Polls and Votes - James E Campbell
The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure - Alan Abramowitz
Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
Of Time and Candidates - Helmut Norpoth
A Forecast for 1996
The Future in Forecasting - Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
Prospective Presidential Models
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts - Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Reading the Political Tea Leaves - Thomas Holbrook
A FolsB