Innovations for our Future Delphi 98 New Foresight on Science and Technology [Paperback]

Foresight has experienced a great upswing in the last few years, partly in view of the Millenium. Innovations for our Future describes not only the big development trends of the future in research and technology, but also the re-discovery of the Delphi method. The Delphi method is not new, but with further developed methodology it is being used increasingly to take stock of innovative future developments. The book describes results of the widespread national survey of 1998, a German-Japanese comparison, another comparison with the preceding Delphi study as well as its utilization and implementation.Foresight has experienced a great upswing in the last few years, partly in view of the Millenium. Innovations for our Future describes not only the big development trends of the future in research and technology, but also the re-discovery of the Delphi method. The Delphi method is not new, but with further developed methodology it is being used increasingly to take stock of innovative future developments. The book describes results of the widespread national survey of 1998, a German-Japanese comparison, another comparison with the preceding Delphi study as well as its utilization and implementation.1 History and Basic Methods.- 1.1 What can we know about the future?.- 1.2 On the history of modern foresight.- 1.3 From forecasting to foresight.- 1.4 Methodological tool-kit of foresight.- 1.5 Forward looking over time: the career of the Delphi method.- 1.6 Benefits of foresight in general.- 2 Outline of the Second Comprehensive Outline of Delphi Study in Germany.- 2.1 What are the key questions?.- 2.2 Organisation of the Delphi process.- 2.3 Questionnaire.- 2.4 Who was surveyed?.- 2.5 Method of calculation and formulae used.- 3 Aggregated Assessments across all Subject Areas.- 3.1 Expertise of the experts taking part.- 3.2 Importance of the Delphi topics.- 3.3 Exlč