Judgment in Managerial Decision Making [Hardcover]

In situations requiring careful judgment, every individual is influenced by their own biases to some extent. With Bazerman's new seventh edition, readers can quickly learn how to overcome those biases to make better managerial decisions. The book examines judgment in a variety of organizational contexts, and provides practical strategies for changing and improving decision-making processes so that they become part of one's permanent behavior.

Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making 1

The Anatomy of Decisions 1

System 1 and System 2 Thinking 3

The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality 5

Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics 7

An Outline of Things to Come 10

Chapter 2 Overconfidence 14

The Mother of All Biases 14

Overprecision 16

Overestimation 22

Overplacement 26

Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making 28

Chapter 3 Common Biases 31

Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic 34

Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic 38

Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic 46

Integration and Commentary 57

Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness 60

Inattentional Blindness 65

Change Blindness 66

Focalism and the Focusing Illusion 67

Bounded Awareness in Groups 69

Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings 71

Discussion 81

Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences 82

Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices 85

We Like Certainty, l3S