Leading Economic Indicators New Approaches and Forecasting Records [Paperback]

Twenty-two articles by international experts on business cycles and economic indicators.In recent years, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches.In recent years, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches.Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.Preface; 1. Editors' introduction; Part I. New Concepts and Methods: 2. Toward a theory of leading indicators Frank de Leeuw; 3. A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators Salih N. Neftci; 4. A probability model of the coincident economic indicators James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson; 5. An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signalling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators Michael P. Niemira; 6. On prediló.